Ones To Watch 8th July
This is the first in my series of videos that I will be producing each week. My aim is to focus on the currencies that I think have the most tradeable potential, in terms of technical and fundamental set-ups. I will analyse the set up to help you understand why it is a potential trade and how to enter, where to set your stop loss and which area to set as your profit target.
In this video I have focused on the EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, USF/CHF, AUD/NZD and the EUR/CHF....
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The pair has been in a long term downtrend for the last 18 months but has, relatively recently, pushed above the descending trendline. There was a possibility that a new uptrend had formed on the 4 hourly chart. However, that was invalidated at the end of last week with heavy selling pressure pushing price below that ascending 4 hourly trendline.
Price has not yet sunk below the previous higher-low, however, still leaving the door open for possible future bullish movement. The testification from Jerome Powell on Wednesday and the June minutes from the FED on the same day, will likely give the pair direction.
The pair broke below the ascending trendline that formed on the daily chart with a strong bearish candle - at this point I entered - Price then decreased sharply and jittered below the previous low at around the 16095 level. The pair settled around the 16029 level.
An uptrend has formed on the 4 hourly chart - a break below the ascending trendline as price retraces towards the descending trendline will provide an opportunity to enter short. The Chinese data out mid-week has the potential to impact the Australian Dollar and move the pair.
The pair was in a very long-term uptrend but in the last month and a half broke strongly below the ascending trendline. It has since formed a descending trend and has relatively recently retraced to that trendline.
The 4 hourly chart also shows an uptrend as price retraces and a break below that line could open the way for a short trade down to previous lows. Again, Jerome powell testifying and the FED minutes will have the biggest impact on the pair this week but Chinese data fuelling global growth concerns or alleviation could also move price.
The pair has been respecting a descending trend. In the latter part of last week, on the daily time-frame, price retraced to that descending trendline and the 4 hourly shows that retracement to be a sharp uptrend. A strong bearish move below that ascending trendline could be a signal to go short.
The mid-week Chinese data is likely to impact the AUD more than the NZD, with positive data being positive for the AUD and bullish for the pair and visa versa.
The pair was sticking to a fairly tight range, with the area in-between 11200 and 11160 providing strong support. However, just under a month ago, price broke strongly below that level and has since retraced to the same level in a tight uptrend on the 4 hourly time-frame.
However, this uptrend is part of a larger overall downtrend which saw price break through that 11160 support level and now a wedge pattern has formed on the 4 hourly. A break below wedge support would open up the pair to a short trade down to just below previous lows.
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Until next time...