Ones To Watch 29th July
Welcome to my "Ones To Watch" for this week! It is a huge week for many of the currencies but of course all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
I have 6 currencies for you this week:
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The pair is currently sitting at major resistance. Currently, there are several stalling candles which indicate indecision. A break below the 11130 level would open up a short possibility down to 11000 - 10950. With the RSI already very low and looking like it might head into oversold territory, I will potentially look for a retracement after the break back to broken support to enter short as this would give a better risk to reward ratio as well.
Major announcements are out for the EUR on Wednesday, as well as that FOMC rate decision, so that will likely be the day where we get further indication of which way price will move.
The pair is respecting a descending trend and has recently retraced to the trendline and also a broken support area. At the moment there is still a lot of bullish action in the market so I would be waiting for a stalling candle to form to show that there is a possibility of a reversal. If we do get that then it opens up a possible short down to 16400 - 16350.
Not much in the way of data releases for the NZD this week. However, the Chinese manufacturing PMI early on Wednesday does have the potential to move the currency as China is one of the biggest trading partners to New Zealand. There is also Australian CPI out early on Wednesday as well - the ties between the countries means that this high impact report can also have an effect on NZD.
This pair is still respecting its range. It has recently bounced off the mid range level and retraced back up to the 7554 area, which it has done twice before. A pin bar has formed suggesting a reversal may be about to take place. The 4 hr chart is showing a small uptrend, so there is the possibility to wait for a break of this ascending trendline before shorting the pair back down towards the 7350 area.
In terms of drivers for the pair, the Eurozone data out Wednesday has the potential to impact the CHF, as well as there being medium tier Swiss announcements on Friday. The CHF may also retake its safe haven status if there are any nasty surprises from the FOMC on Wednesday. CAD will likely be impacted by the FOMC rate decision. However, Canadian GDP is also out Wednesday as well as Canadian manufacturing PMI out on Thursday.
The pair has broken out of the descending trend and now appears to be heading higher with a possible uptrend on the daily chart. A bullish move above 11000 would open up a long opportunity to previous resistance around 11100 and then next major resistance around 11200.
So, the Eurozone data out on Wednesday and the Swiss data on Friday the main movers for the CHF. For the YEN, Chinese GDP on Wednesday is likely to have the biggest impact on the currency.
The pair has been respecting the descending trendline and has recently retraced right to this point, which intersects nicely with a horizontal support/resistance area. A stalling candle has formed suggesting that a reversal may be about to take place. To short this pair I would be looking for a break below the wicks of the candles formed on the 25th and 26th July, as this would provide a bit more certainty that bearish momentum could follow.
A huge amount of high impact data out for both currencies this week but, of course, the main focus will be on the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. There is, however, also non-farm payrolls on Friday - again, a high impact announcement that has the opportunity to move the market. For the CAD there is Canadian GDP out on Wednesday as well as Canadian manufacturing PMI out on Thursday.
Another pair that has been respecting a descending trend and has recently retraced to that trendline and a horizontal support and resistance level. 2 stalling candles have also formed at this level pointing to the potential of a reversal and bearish momentum. The 4 hourly shows a small range forming and I would look to enter if price broke below the 11026 area, placing my stop loss around the 11085 area, 20 pips above the top of the range, for a decent risk/reward ratio.
The Eurozone data on Wednesday, as well as the Swiss releases on Friday, likely to give most of the direction to this pair. However, don't forget that CHF may act as a safe haven if major releases this week re-spark global growth concerns.
Well that's all I have for you this week guys. Thank you for watching my video and I hope you found it useful.
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Until next time...